Online peak spending swings complicate 2026 planning

Peak periods for online retailers are showing sharper swings in spending and engagement, and new analysis from SaleCycle suggests volatility that could complicate planning for 2026.

The Gateshead-based conversion platform analysed behavioural data from the two weeks leading up to Valentine's Day and Easter in 2025. The findings show uneven consumer responses across events and persistent barriers at checkout.

Average order value rose 29% in the Valentine's period, but fell 55% ahead of Easter. Checkout abandonment stayed at about 64% in both windows, suggesting friction at checkout is a year-round issue rather than a seasonal one.

Mixed spending

The gap between Valentine's and Easter performance suggests consumers are not following consistent seasonal patterns. SaleCycle characterised the behaviour as reactive and sentiment-led, with spending concentrated around occasions that feel personally meaningful and pulled back around lower-stakes moments.

It argues that this volatility makes forecasting harder. Retail teams often build promotional calendars around expected peak uplifts; a wider spread of outcomes across events increases the risk of overestimating demand in some periods while missing it in others.

Jonathan Keighley, SaleCycle's chief revenue officer, said early peaks are signalling what may come next.

"What we're seeing is far more reactive and emotionally driven spending than in previous years. For example, Valentine's Day delivered a 29% uplift in average order value, while Easter showed a 55% drop. That tells us shoppers are prepared to spend more when the occasion feels meaningful, and far less when it doesn't. This kind of volatility will define peaks throughout 2026."

Checkout friction

Cart abandonment held at roughly 64% across both periods, indicating the same friction points can interrupt purchase journeys even when intent is higher. The analysis also suggests a compounding effect during busier periods, when consumers browse more options, compare prices and delivery terms, and pause more often before committing.

Keighley pointed to delivery information, checkout speed and payment choice as recurring issues that can deter customers at the final stage.

"Even when the buying intent is high, shoppers still hit the same friction points: unclear delivery timelines, slow checkout flows, and limited payment options. If retailers don't address these fundamentals early, they'll carry the same losses into bigger peaks later in the year," he said.

Email fatigue

The analysis also found weakening performance in recovery messaging. SaleCycle recorded a 15% drop in recovery email performance around Valentine's Day and a 17% drop around Easter, linking the declines to inbox fatigue and reduced attention during seasonal campaigns.

At the same time, conversion from click held steady at 10% to 11% across both periods, suggesting intent remains strong once a shopper returns and re-engages-even if re-engagement is becoming harder.

Fragmented peaks

Major events such as Black Friday have already expanded beyond a single day, with promotions spread across weeks. SaleCycle's data suggests a further shift, with peaks no longer producing a predictable surge at a particular hour or day.

Instead, shopping appears dispersed across smaller moments, with consumers browsing on mobile throughout the day, switching devices, and deciding in short bursts. It also pointed to wider use of guest checkout and incognito browsing, which can limit a retailer's ability to recognise returning visitors and personalise messaging.

SaleCycle positions its technology around identity resolution and visitor recognition, saying it can identify a significant share of anonymous and guest visitors and connect activity across sessions to feed customer profiles and marketing systems.

Keighley said retailers should expect the idea of a single rush period to weaken further.

"The idea of a 'rush period' during peaks is disappearing. Instead of a single surge in activity, shopping is now spread out over a longer period of time - but within that window, behaviour happens in short, fragmented bursts. These bursts tend to happen on mobile, across multiple devices, and at times that rarely match retailer expectations. This shift means retailers need always-on activation and real-time responsiveness, rather than timing campaigns around one anticipated moment," said Keighley.

SaleCycle was founded in Newcastle in 2010 and is headquartered in Gateshead, with an additional base in Paris. It works with more than 300 brands across sectors, including fashion, travel and telecoms.